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Sub-baccalaureate education has been growing substantially. As the figures in Table 1 reveal, thirty years ago only 13 percent of the labor force had "some college;" currently, however, as part of the upward trend in education, about 27 percent of the labor force have more than a high school diploma but less than a baccalaureate degree.
Forecasts of the nation's occupations suggest that this trend will
continue: The occupations with the highest growth rates include health technicians;
technicians and related support occupations; marketing and sales occupations;
and some administrative support occupations, including computer operatorsall of
which typically require some education beyond high school but less than a
baccalaureate degree (Silvestri, 1993, Tables 1 and Many of the recent
commission reports concerned with the state of education in the United States
have repeated this convention: for example, America's Choice: High Skills or
Low Wages! stated that
Even if occupational forecasting is a risky business, the educational level of the labor force is almost certain to continue increasingand much of the growth will take place at the sub-baccalaureate level. During this period of increase, the simple economic benefits of subbaccalaureate educationas measured by the ratio of earnings to those of high school graduatesincreased somewhat. During the 1960s, those with some college earned a little less than high school graduates.
Currently those with some college earn 14 percent more among men and 17 percent more among women, suggesting that relative demand for sub-baccalaureate education has increased over the past three decades.
However, the figures for those with "some college" lump together a heterogeneous group of individuals. Some have completed credentials, particularly two-year Associate degrees and one-year certificates; smaller numbers have received occupational licenses of various kinds. Many have entered two- and four-year colleges and then left, with amounts of postsecondary education ranging from a course or two to nearly a baccalaureate degree. Because both the quality and the quantity of postsecondary education vary so much among those with "some college," it is critical to disaggregate this group.
Unfortunately, there is no
unambiguous way to do so, and each data set provides slightly different kinds
of information. Overall, non-completion from both two- and fouryear colleges
has increased since the mid-1970s (Grubb, 1989b; Boesel & Fredland, 1998,
Figure 3). Rates of dropping out are particularly high from community colleges
and less selective four-year colleges, and among low-income and minority
students. For example, of students entering public two-year colleges in
1989-90, 12.9 percent obtained a certificate by spring 1994, 17.5 percent an
Associate degree, 6.5 percent a baccalaureate degree; 48.6 percent were not
enrolled and had earned no degree, while 14.7 percent were still enrolled
(Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, & McCormick, 1996, Table 2.1b). Therefore it is
particularly important to determine the economic consequences of leaving
postsecondary institutions without credentials.
